xiaohongshu
xiaohongshu
financial-model-architect
Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models projecting revenue, expenses, headcount, cash flow, and runway. Model unit economics, scenario planning, and path to profitability. Generate investor-ready HTML reports with detailed projections and charts.
Full skill instructions
Mission: Build a comprehensive 3-5 year financial model that projects revenue, expenses, headcount, cash flow, and runway. Model unit economics, scenario planning (base/upside/downside), and path to profitability. Create a single source of truth for financial planning and investor due diligence.
Before generating the HTML output, verify all required data is collected:
{{BUSINESS_NAME}} - Company/product name{{DATE}} - Report generation date{{FORECAST_YEARS}} - Forecast period (e.g., "5-Year"){{YEAR5_ARR}} - Year 5 ARR projection (e.g., "$12M"){{CURRENT_MRR}} - Current MRR (e.g., "$85K"){{RUNWAY}} - Current runway (e.g., "18mo"){{LTV_CAC}} - LTV:CAC ratio (e.g., "4.2:1"){{YEAR5_HEADCOUNT}} - Year 5 headcount (e.g., "145"){{RULE_OF_40}} - Rule of 40 score (e.g., "75"){{EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY}} - 2-3 paragraphs with model overview and key assumptions{{SUMMARY_METRICS}} - 5 key metric cards (ARR, customers, burn, cash, headcount){{REVENUE_ASSUMPTIONS}} - 4 assumption cards (ARPU, ARPU growth, starting churn, target churn){{REVENUE_ROWS}} - 5 year rows with customers, ARPU, MRR, ARR, churn, NRR{{COGS_ROWS}} - 5 year rows with revenue, COGS, gross profit, gross margin{{OPEX_YEAR_HEADERS}} - Year column headers for OpEx table{{OPEX_ROWS}} - S&M, R&D, G&A rows with 5 year data + total row{{HEADCOUNT_YEAR_HEADERS}} - Year column headers{{HEADCOUNT_ROWS}} - Department rows (Eng, Product, Sales, Marketing, CS, G&A) + total{{UNIT_ECON_CARDS}} - 3 cards (CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC with formulas and benchmarks){{UNIT_ECON_ROWS}} - 5 year rows with CAC, LTV, LTV:CAC, payback, magic #{{CASHFLOW_METRICS}} - 4 metric cards (burn, cash, runway, next raise){{CASHFLOW_ROWS}} - 5 year rows with revenue, expenses, net burn, fundraising, cash balance{{SCENARIO_CARDS}} - 3 scenario cards (base, upside, downside)
{{PROFITABILITY_MILESTONES}} - 3 milestones (gross profit, cash flow positive, net profit){{GROWTH_RATE}} - Current ARR growth rate{{NET_MARGIN}} - Current net margin{{RULE40_CLASS}} - CSS class ("healthy" or "warning"){{RULE40_ROWS}} - 5 year rows with growth, margin, Rule of 40, status{{YEAR_LABELS}} - JSON array of year labels{{ARR_DATA}} - JSON array of ARR values{{EXPENSE_LABELS}} - JSON array of expense categories{{EXPENSE_DATA}} - JSON array of expense amounts{{CASH_DATA}} - JSON array of cash balance values{{HEADCOUNT_DATA}} - JSON array of headcount values{{ROADMAP_PHASES}} - 4 phases (Revenue, Cost, Cash/Unit Econ, Validation)
I found outputs from revenue-model-builder, metrics-dashboard-designer, investor-pitch-deck-builder, and go-to-market-planner.
I can reuse:
- Pricing & revenue streams (pricing tiers, revenue model)
- Unit economics (ARPU: [$X], CAC: [$Y], LTV: [$Z], LTV:CAC: [ratio])
- Current traction (MRR: [$X], customers: [Y], growth rate: [Z% MoM])
- Fundraising plan (raising: [$X], use of funds: [product/GTM/ops split])
- GTM strategy (customer acquisition channels, CAC by channel)
Proceed with this data? [Yes/Start Fresh]
I found outputs from some upstream skills: [list which ones].
I can reuse: [list specific data available]
Proceed with this data, or start fresh?
No previous context detected.
I'll guide you through building your financial model from the ground up.
Question MB1: What is the baseline for your financial model?
Current State (as of today):
Revenue Metrics:
Cost Metrics:
Growth Metrics:
Your Current State:
Question MB2: What is your forecasting timeframe?
Forecasting Period:
Your Timeframe: [e.g., "5 years — 2024 to 2028"]
Forecast Granularity:
Your Granularity: [e.g., "Monthly for Year 1, quarterly for Year 2, annual for Years 3-5"]
Question RP1: What are your revenue assumptions?
Revenue Model (from revenue-model-builder):
Growth Assumptions:
Why ARPU grows: [e.g., "Customers add more users, upgrade to higher tiers, purchase add-ons"]
Why churn improves: [e.g., "Better onboarding, product improvements, customer success team"]
Your Revenue Assumptions (fill in):
Question RP2: What is your revenue forecast?
Revenue Projection Table (calculate based on assumptions above):
| Year | Customers | ARPU | MRR | ARR | Churn % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 200 | $150 | $30K | $360K | 5% |
| 2025 | 600 | $158 | $95K | $1.1M | 4% |
| 2026 | 1,800 | $166 | $299K | $3.6M | 3% |
| 2027 | 3,600 | $176 | $634K | $7.6M | 3% |
| 2028 | 5,400 | $186 | $1M | $12M | 3% |
Revenue Waterfall (MRR breakdown):
Starting MRR: [$X]
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
Your Revenue Forecast (use template above, fill in numbers)
Question CS1: What are your cost of goods sold (COGS)?
COGS = Direct costs to deliver your product/service
SaaS COGS (typical):
Your COGS Components:
Gross Margin Target: [e.g., "75%" — typical for SaaS is 70-85%]
COGS Projection:
| Year | Revenue | COGS | Gross Profit | Gross Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $360K | $90K | $270K | 75% |
| 2025 | $1.1M | $275K | $825K | 75% |
| 2026 | $3.6M | $900K | $2.7M | 75% |
| 2027 | $7.6M | $1.9M | $5.7M | 75% |
| 2028 | $12M | $3M | $9M | 75% |
Question CS2: What are your operating expenses?
Operating Expenses (OpEx) = All non-COGS expenses
OpEx Categories:
Your OpEx Breakdown (by year):
| Category | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales & Marketing | $200K | $500K | $1.2M | $2.5M | $4M |
| R&D | $300K | $750K | $1.5M | $3M | $5M |
| G&A | $100K | $250K | $500K | $1M | $1.5M |
| Total OpEx | $600K | $1.5M | $3.2M | $6.5M | $10.5M |
OpEx as % of Revenue:
Question HC1: What is your headcount plan?
Headcount by Department:
| Department | Today | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Engineering | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 40 | 60 |
| Product | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 15 |
| Sales | 2 | 5 | 12 | 25 | 40 | 60 |
| Marketing | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 20 |
| Customer Success | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 35 |
| G&A (Ops, Finance) | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 20 |
| Total | 9 | 24 | 50 | 92 | 145 | 210 |
Average Salary by Department (including benefits, taxes, overhead):
| Department | Avg Annual Salary |
|---|---|
| Engineering | $150K |
| Product | $140K |
| Sales | $120K (base + commission) |
| Marketing | $100K |
| Customer Success | $80K |
| G&A | $120K |
Total Personnel Cost (headcount × avg salary):
| Year | Headcount | Avg Salary | Total Personnel Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9 | $120K | $1.1M |
| 2025 | 24 | $120K | $2.9M |
| 2026 | 50 | $120K | $6M |
| 2027 | 92 | $120K | $11M |
| 2028 | 145 | $120K | $17.4M |
Question HC2: When will you hire each role?
Hiring Roadmap (next 12-24 months):
Your Hiring Roadmap (fill in next 4 quarters)
Question CF1: What is your burn rate and runway?
Burn Rate = Total monthly expenses - Revenue
Burn Rate Calculation:
| Month | Revenue | Total Expenses | Burn Rate | Cash Balance | Runway (months) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | $30K | $80K | -$50K | $500K | 10 months |
| Feb 2024 | $32K | $82K | -$50K | $450K | 9 months |
| Mar 2024 | $35K | $85K | -$50K | $400K | 8 months |
| [...] | [...] | [...] | [...] | [...] | [...] |
Runway = Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
Your Burn Rate (current):
Question CF2: How will fundraising impact your runway?
Fundraising Scenario:
Before Fundraising:
After Fundraising (assuming you raise [$Z]):
Use of Funds (from investor-pitch-deck-builder):
Post-Fundraising Burn Rate:
Your Post-Fundraising Plan (fill in)
Question UE1: What are your unit economics?
Unit Economics = Economics of acquiring and retaining one customer
Key Metrics:
CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost):
LTV (Lifetime Value):
LTV:CAC Ratio:
Payback Period:
Magic Number (Sales Efficiency):
Burn Multiple (Capital Efficiency):
Your Unit Economics (fill in):
Question UE2: How will unit economics improve over time?
Unit Economics Roadmap:
| Year | CAC | LTV | LTV:CAC | Payback (mo) | Why Improving? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1,000 | $3,000 | 3:1 | 9 months | Baseline |
| 2025 | $900 | $3,500 | 3.9:1 | 7 months | Better sales efficiency, lower churn |
| 2026 | $800 | $4,000 | 5:1 | 6 months | Product-led growth, improved retention |
| 2027 | $700 | $4,500 | 6.4:1 | 5 months | Brand awareness, word-of-mouth, NRR >100% |
| 2028 | $600 | $5,000 | 8.3:1 | 4 months | Scale efficiencies, mature product |
How to improve unit economics:
Question SP1: What are your scenario assumptions?
Scenario Planning = Model 3 scenarios (Base Case, Upside, Downside)
Base Case (50% probability — most likely outcome):
Upside Case (20% probability — optimistic):
Downside Case (30% probability — pessimistic):
Your Scenarios (fill in assumptions for each):
| Assumption | Base Case | Upside Case | Downside Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (YoY) | 3x | 5x | 2x |
| Churn Rate | 4% | 3% | 6% |
| CAC | $1,000 | $800 | $1,500 |
| Fundraising Amount | $2.5M | $4M | $1.5M |
| Fundraising Timeline | 6 months | 3 months | 9 months |
Question SP2: What is your financial forecast for each scenario?
Scenario Comparison Table (Year 5 results):
| Metric | Base Case | Upside Case | Downside Case |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARR | $12M | $25M | $6M |
| Customers | 5,400 | 10,000 | 3,000 |
| Gross Margin | 75% | 78% | 72% |
| Net Margin | -10% | +15% | -25% |
| Cash Balance | $2M | $8M | $500K |
| Headcount | 145 | 220 | 90 |
| Runway (if negative) | — | — | 6 months |
Scenario Analysis (for investors):
Question PP1: When will you be profitable?
Profitability Milestones:
Your Path to Profitability:
Profitability Levers (how to get there faster):
Question PP2: What is your Rule of 40 trajectory?
Rule of 40 = Growth Rate + Profit Margin
Rule of 40 Calculation:
| Year | ARR Growth | Net Margin | Rule of 40 | Healthy? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 200% | -80% | 120 | ✅ Yes |
| 2025 | 200% | -50% | 150 | ✅ Yes |
| 2026 | 200% | -20% | 180 | ✅ Yes |
| 2027 | 100% | 0% | 100 | ✅ Yes |
| 2028 | 60% | +15% | 75 | ✅ Yes |
Your Rule of 40 Trajectory (fill in table above)
Question FS1: What financial statements will you generate?
Core Financial Statements:
Your Financial Statements (which ones will you build?):
Tool:
Your Tool: [Choose one]
Question IR1: What is your financial model build timeline?
You will now receive a comprehensive document covering:
After generating the strategy, I will ask:
Quality Check:
Iterate? [Yes — refine X / No — finalize]
Once finalized, I will:
Assumptions > outputs: Investors care more about your assumptions than your projections. Document every assumption clearly.
Be realistic, not optimistic: Conservative assumptions build credibility. Overly optimistic projections kill trust.
Unit economics must work: If LTV:CAC < 3:1 or payback > 12 months, fix your business model before fundraising.
Model 3 scenarios: Base, upside, downside. Shows you've thought through risks and opportunities.
Update quarterly: A financial model is a living document. Update it every quarter with actuals.
Show path to profitability: Investors want to see when you'll be cash flow positive (ideally within 18-24 months of current round).
Rule of 40 > 40: Growth rate + profit margin should exceed 40%. If not, you're either growing too slowly or burning too much.
Sensitivity analysis: Show how changes in key assumptions (growth rate, churn, CAC) impact the model. Proves you understand the business.
Upstream Skills (reuse data from):
Downstream Skills (use this data in):
CRITICAL: When generating HTML output, you MUST read and follow the skeleton template files AND the verification checklist to maintain StratArts brand consistency.
Verification Checklist (MUST READ FIRST):
html-templates/VERIFICATION-CHECKLIST.md
Base Template (shared structure):
html-templates/base-template.html
Skill-Specific Template (content sections & charts):
html-templates/financial-model-architect.html
VERIFICATION-CHECKLIST.md first - contains canonical CSS patterns that MUST be copied exactlybase-template.html - contains all shared CSS, layout structure, and Chart.js configurationfinancial-model-architect.html - contains skill-specific content sections, CSS extensions, and chart scripts{{PLACEHOLDER}} markers with actual analysis data{{SKILL_SPECIFIC_CSS}}{{CONTENT_SECTIONS}}{{CHART_SCRIPTS}}Before delivering the HTML report, verify:
End of Skill
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