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Cost Estimation Skill

cost-estimation

Guidelines for estimating token usage and costs per task and phase. Reference this skill when planning to provide accurate budget estimates.

SKILL.md

Full skill instructions

// Project Autopilot - Cost Estimation Guidelines // Copyright (c) 2026 Jeremy McSpadden [email protected]

Cost Estimation Skill

Reference this skill when creating phases to provide accurate token/​cost estimates.


Task Cost Estimates

By Task Type

Task TypeInput TokensOutput TokensEst. Cost (Sonnet)
Read/​analyze file500-2,000200-500$0.002-0.01
Create new file1,000-3,0001,500-5,000$0.01-0.03
Modify existing file1,500-4,0001,000-3,000$0.01-0.025
Write unit tests2,000-5,0002,000-6,000$0.015-0.045
Write integration tests3,000-8,0003,000-8,000$0.025-0.06
Code review2,000-6,0001,000-3,000$0.01-0.03
Documentation1,000-3,0001,500-4,000$0.01-0.025
Debug/​fix3,000-10,0002,000-5,000$0.02-0.05
Schema design1,500-4,0002,000-5,000$0.015-0.035
API endpoint2,000-5,0002,500-6,000$0.02-0.045
React component2,000-6,0003,000-8,000$0.025-0.055
Configuration500-1,500500-1,500$0.003-0.01

By Complexity

ComplexityMultiplierExample
Simple1.0xAdd config value, simple function
Medium1.5xNew endpoint with validation
Complex2.5xAuth system, complex logic
Very Complex4.0xMulti-service integration

Phase Cost Estimates

Typical Phase Costs (Sonnet)

PhaseTasksEst. TokensEst. Cost
001 Setup3-515K-30K$0.08-0.20
002 Database4-625K-50K$0.15-0.35
003 Infrastructure4-620K-40K$0.12-0.28
004 Auth5-840K-80K$0.25-0.55
005 API6-1250K-120K$0.35-0.85
006 Business Logic6-1560K-150K$0.40-1.00
007 Frontend8-1580K-180K$0.55-1.25
008 Features10-25100K-300K$0.70-2.00
009 Testing6-1250K-120K$0.35-0.85
010 Security4-830K-70K$0.20-0.50
011 Documentation4-830K-60K$0.20-0.40
012 DevOps5-1040K-90K$0.28-0.60
013 Polish3-825K-60K$0.15-0.40

Total Typical Project: 400K-1.5M tokens, $2.50-$10.00


Estimation Formula

Per Task

Base Cost = (input_tokens × input_rate) + (output_tokens × output_rate)

Haiku:  input_rate = $1/​1M,  output_rate = $5/​1M
Sonnet: input_rate = $3/​1M,  output_rate = $15/​1M
Opus:   input_rate = $5/​1M,  output_rate = $25/​1M

Adjusted Cost = Base Cost × Complexity Multiplier × Buffer (1.2)

Per Phase

Phase Estimate = Σ(Task Estimates) × Phase Buffer (1.15)

Buffer Factors

FactorBufferReason
Task1.2xRetries, validation
Phase1.15xIntegration, fixes
Project1.25xUnknowns, scope creep

Confidence Levels

LevelVarianceWhen to Use
High±15%Well-defined, done before
Medium±30%Clear scope, some unknowns
Low±50%Vague requirements, new tech

Estimation Checklist

Before finalizing phase estimates:

  • Each task has complexity rating
  • Model specified (Opus vs Sonnet)
  • Buffer applied (1.2x task, 1.15x phase)
  • Confidence level stated
  • Range provided (min-max)
  • Total phase estimate calculated
  • Fits within project budget

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