Counter Evidence

counter-evidence

Search for evidence that contradicts the investment thesis using independent sources

HuskyDanny/FinancialAgent·0installs0starsFinance & Trading

SKILL.md

Full skill instructions

Counter Evidence Workflow

OBJECTIVE: Find legitimate reasons why the thesis might be wrong, using INDEPENDENT data sources.

Step 1: Identify Thesis Pillars

What are the key bullish arguments?

Growth assumptions (revenue, earnings, market share)
Competitive advantages (moat, technology, brand)
Market opportunity claims (TAM, growth rate)
Management quality assertions
Valuation justification

Step 2: Targeted Counter-Search

For each pillar, actively look for contradictions:

Use search_web_exa with bearish keywords:
- "[company] risks", "[company] challenges", "[company] lawsuit"
- "[company] competition losing", "[company] regulatory action"
- "[company] analyst downgrade", "[company] SEC investigation"
Use fetch_yfinance_news to check:
- Whether financial stats match the thesis claims
- Recent news headlines that contradict the bullish narrative
- Key stats (PE ratio, growth rates) vs thesis assumptions

Step 3: Assess Severity

Rate each counter-evidence found:

MINOR: Doesn't invalidate thesis, manageable risk
MODERATE: Reduces conviction, needs monitoring
MAJOR: Potentially invalidates key thesis pillar
CRITICAL: Fundamental flaw, thesis may be wrong

Output Format

COUNTER EVIDENCE REPORT: [SYMBOL]

THESIS PILLAR: [Growth assumption] Counter-Evidence: [What was found from independent sources] Severity: [MINOR/MODERATE/MAJOR/CRITICAL] Implication: [What this means for the thesis]

[Repeat for each pillar]

OVERALL ASSESSMENT: Thesis Vulnerability: [LOW/MODERATE/HIGH] Most Concerning Finding: [Single biggest issue]

Install skill

Copy and run in your terminal

npx -y skills add https://github.com/HuskyDanny/FinancialAgent --skill counter-evidence

View on GitHub

backend/src/agent/skills/debater/counter-evidence/SKILL.md

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