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Prediction Trade Journal

prediction-trade-journal

Auto-log trades with context, track outcomes, generate calibration reports to improve trading.

SKILL.md

Full skill instructions

Prediction Trade Journal

Track every trade, learn from outcomes, improve your edge.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user wants to:

  • See their trade history
  • Track win rate and P&L
  • Generate trading reports
  • Analyze which strategies work best

Quick Commands

# Sync trades from API
python tradejournal.py --sync

# Show recent trades
python tradejournal.py --history 10

# Generate weekly report
python tradejournal.py --report weekly

# Export to CSV
python tradejournal.py --export trades.csv

API Reference:

  • Base URL: https://api.simmer.markets
  • Auth: Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY
  • Trades: GET /​api/​sdk/​trades

How It Works

  1. Sync - Polls /​api/​sdk/​trades to fetch trade history
  2. Store - Saves trades locally with outcome tracking
  3. Track - Updates outcomes when markets resolve
  4. Report - Generates win rate, P&L, and calibration analysis

CLI Reference

CommandDescription
--syncFetch new trades from API
--history NShow last N trades (default: 10)
--sync-outcomesUpdate resolved markets
--report daily/​weekly/​monthlyGenerate summary report
--configShow configuration
--export FILE.csvExport to CSV
--dry-runPreview without making changes

Configuration

SettingEnvironment VariableDefault
API KeySIMMER_API_KEY(required)

Storage

Trades are stored locally in data/​trades.json:

{
  "trades": [{
    "id": "uuid",
    "market_question": "Will X happen?",
    "side": "yes",
    "shares": 10.5,
    "cost": 6.83,
    "outcome": {
      "resolved": false,
      "winning_side": null,
      "pnl_usd": null
    }
  }],
  "metadata": {
    "last_sync": "2025-01-29T...",
    "total_trades": 50
  }
}

Skill Integration

Other skills can enrich trades with context:

from tradejournal import log_trade

# After executing a trade
log_trade(
    trade_id=result['trade_id'],
    source="copytrading",
    thesis="Mirroring whale 0x123...",
    confidence=0.70
)

This adds thesis, confidence, and source to the trade record for better analysis.

Example Report

📓 Weekly Report
========================================
Period: Last 7 days
Trades: 15
Total cost: $125.50
Resolved: 8 / 15
Win rate: 62.5%
P&L: +$18.30

By side: 10 YES, 5 NO

Troubleshooting

"SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable not set"

  • Set your API key: export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...

"No trades recorded yet"

  • Run python tradejournal.py --sync to fetch trades from API

Trades not showing outcomes

  • Run python tradejournal.py --sync-outcomes to update resolved markets

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