Edge Detection Skill
edge
Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources
SKILL.md
Full skill instructions
Edge Detection Skill
Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.
Commands
Scan for Edge
/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed
Compare Specific Market
/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi
Kelly Calculator
/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll
Data Sources
Political
- 538/Silver Bulletin - Election models
- RealClearPolitics - Polling averages
- Betting Odds - Pinnacle, offshore books
- PredictIt - Alternative market prices
Economic
- CME FedWatch - Rate probabilities
- Bloomberg Consensus - Economist forecasts
- Treasury Yields - Implied expectations
Sports
- Vegas Lines - Sharp money indicators
- ESPN FPI - Power rankings
- Historical Models - ELO ratings
Examples
User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels
User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence
User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll
Output Format
🎯 EDGE DETECTED
Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket
Current Price: 23¢
External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%
Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium
Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll