voidly-forecast-v1-7day

Voidly Atlas 7-Day Shutdown Forecast v1.1

Version: v1.1 | Trained: 2026-05-21T04:20:38Z | License: CC BY 4.0

XGBoost + isotonic-calibration forecast for 7-day censorship risk. Retrained 2026-05-21 after IODA disruption labels were excluded from target_7day — earlier model had been promoting raw IODA outages (94% of April incidents) as confirmed censorship.

Eval

Dual-holdout gate accepted (legacy holdout +18pp, temporal holdout +58pp).

Honest caveats

• Operational threshold is 0.05, not the F1-optimal 0.27 — calibrated for high recall, accepts false positives.
• Live production track record: precision 0.69 / recall 0.39 / Brier 0.56 / calibration drift +56pp over 720 predictions (model under-predicts long-tail positives).
• Adaptive Conformal Inference adjusts α online (currently 0.21, started at 0.10) — empirical coverage 91.3% over 840 observations.

Reproducibility

python3 scripts/build-forecast-features.py  # excludes incident_type='disruption'

python3 scripts/test-forecast-labels-sane.py        # weekly regression gate

Citation

@misc{voidly_voidly_forecast_v1_7day,
  title  = {Voidly Atlas: voidly-forecast-v1-7day (v1.1)},
  author = {Voidly},
  year   = {2026},
  url    = {https://huggingface.co/emperor-mew/voidly-forecast-v1-7day},
  note   = {Open censorship-research ML stack. CC BY 4.0.}
}