uogw-tornado-trends

UOGW Tornado Trends Suite

Publisher: Aerostratospheric
Library: scikit-learn (.joblib heads)
Sibling data: aerostratospheric/uogw · spc-tornado-history

Research package for tornado climatology and Midwest trend screening (SPC Severe Weather Database 1950–2024), with UOGW Clark County desk products as context — not a warning service.

What this is / is not

Trained 2026-09-18T15:34:31Z (~71.8k SPC rows). Hub re-touch 2026-09-23 — weights not re-trained. Intended retrain ~12:30 UTC.

Heads (shipped)

State id map: state_id_map.json / config.json. Holdout metrics: metrics.json.

Note: A Clark County pre-tornado research fit appears in metrics history with n_days: 0 for this build — no clark_pre_tornado_research.joblib is shipped until history is available. Do not invent that head.

How to load

import json
from pathlib import Path
import joblib
from huggingface_hub import snapshot_download

root = Path(snapshot_download("aerostratospheric/uogw-tornado-trends"))
cfg = json.loads((root / "config.json").read_text())
heads = {h: joblib.load(root / "models" / f"{h}.joblib") for h in cfg["heads"]}
state_ids = cfg.get("state_id_map") or json.loads((root / "state_id_map.json").read_text())

# Example features for state_month_count: st_id, mo, sin_m, cos_m, yr (see metrics.json)

Requires scikit-learn, joblib, huggingface_hub.

Data provenance & freshness (2026-09-23 CT)

• Primary: NOAA/SPC Severe Weather Database tornado CSV (companion dataset on Hub)
• Context: UOGW pre-tornado-clark desk products when present in the archive
• UOGW dataset sync 2026-09-23T18:29:53Z; ground KILCASEY47 overlay ~2026-09-23 12:05 CT
• Radiation tip still 2026-09-16 on UOGW (unrelated to SPC climatology; listed for desk honesty)

See FRESHNESS.md.

Related artifacts

Citation

Aerostratospheric / Midwest Stratospheric Data Systems (2026).
UOGW Tornado Trends Suite. Hugging Face.
https://huggingface.co/aerostratospheric/uogw-tornado-trends

Always cite NOAA/SPC as the system of record for storm reports. License: CC BY 4.0 for this packaging.

Collaboration on severe weather data (2026-09-25)

This tornado trend packaging is part of the open UOGW commons from Aerostratospheric, an Illinois nonprofit and home of Midwest Stratospheric Data Systems. Severe weather researchers, storm spotter trainers, and classrooms who want to pair their own reports or methods with these layers are welcome to reach out about data collaboration.

Live context sits on xDataHub, our public open atmospheric data dashboard (https://www.midwestsds.com/msds-data-hub.html), including NOAA KILX soundings next to our own flight packages. API docs: https://www.midwestsds.com/data/v1/api.html

Contact [email protected] or book a 15 minute intro at https://calendly.com/aerostratospheric/15min. Collaboration only; we are not asking for donated gear or services.